Much has changed since the Bank of Canada’s last decision on January 20. While the second pandemic wave was raging, new lockdowns were implemented in late 2020, and there were fears that the economy, in consequence, was likely to grow at a 4.8% annual rate in Q4 and contract in Q1. Instead, the lockdowns were less […]

The Bank of Canada, this morning, released its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR), showing they expect to keep overnight interest rates at its “effective lower bound” of 0.25% until 2023 (see chart below). To reinforce this commitment and keep interest rates low across the yield curve, the Bank will continue its Quantitative Easing (QE) program–buying […]

Canadian Jobs Market Tanked in December Canadian employment fell 62,600 last month, a bit weaker than expected, following seven months of recovery (see chart below). The rapid rise in COVID cases and the ensuing lockdown measures in many key regions caused the net loss in jobs in the mid-December survey.  Especially hard hit were workers at […]

Canadian Housing Remained Strong in November Today’s release of November housing data by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) shows national home sales continued to run at historically strong levels last month. Competition among buyers remains intense in the detached-home market and townhouses. Still, condo apartment sales-relative-to-new-listings have slowed as new listings surged, especially in the City […]

Canada’s Jobs Recovery Slowed Again in November With Second Wave The November Labour Force Survey, released this morning by Stats Canada, showed an employment increase of 62,000 compared to 83,600 in October–well below the 378,000 gain in September.  This was the weakest job growth in the past six months since the economic recovery began (see […]

Rebounding Q3 Canadian Economy Stalls in Q4 The Canadian economy rebounded sharply in the third quarter, posting its most rapid expansion ever. Still, it was a lower than expected gain, and early data show that momentum is quickly fading in the face of a second wave of the pandemic. Gross domestic product rose by a massive […]

Federal Fiscal Update–Finance Minister Freeland’s Debut Justin Trudeau’s government, which has delivered the biggest COVID-19 fiscal response in the industrialized world, announced plans for another dose of stimulus and vowed to continue priming the pump as long as needed. Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland unveiled $51.7 billion of new spending over two years in a mini-budget Monday, led […]

Canada’s Jobs Recovery Slowed in October With New Pandemic Restrictions The October Labour Force Survey, released this morning by Stats Canada, showed an employment increase of 83,600–well below the 378,000 gain in September and average monthly gains of 395,000 over the past six months (see chart below). Several provinces tightened public health restrictions last month […]

Bank of Canada Recalibrates Quantitative Easing As expected, the Bank held its target overnight rate at the effective lower bound of 25 basis points with the clear notion that negative policy rates are not in the cards. Instead, the central bank will continue to rely on large-scale asset purchases–quantitative easing (QE). The central bank is recalibrating its QE […]

Bank of Canada Will Stop Buying Canada Mortgage Bonds This Wednesday, the Bank of Canada will release its interest rate announcement and the October Monetary Policy Report. Most people expect the overnight rate to remain at 0.25%, where it has been since the pandemic hit. A few have suggested that the Bank could take a page from […]